Lieutenant General Rana Pratap Kalita, a distinguished former General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Indian Army’s Eastern Command, brings a wealth of experience to his analysis of the evolving terror dynamics in Jammu and Kashmir. Having led a Rashtriya Rifles Battalion in the challenging counter-insurgency environment of Jammu and Kashmir, commanded a Mountain Brigade during peacetime and overseen a critical Infantry Division in Jammu and Kashmir, as well as a Corps in North East India, Lt Gen Kalita, offers a nuanced perspective on the current situation. In an insightful discussion with Firstpost, the retired General delves into the complexities of the escalating terror activities in the Jammu region. He examines the multifaceted challenges posed by the region’s terrain, the advanced training and technology of the terrorists and articulates strategic measures the army can employ to manage this volatile scenario.

Yesterday’s ambush on an army vehicle in the mountainous Machedi area of Kathua district of Jammu is the first major attack in Kathua district, which, during the peak of militancy in Jammu and Kashmir, remained one of the least affected areas. Moreover, this area falls under the operational command of the Yol-based 9 corps. Do you think terrorism is shifting south in Jammu?

Firstly, my deepest condolences to the families of the brave hearts who made the supreme sacrifice at Machedi due to dastardly act by terrorists who do not want the return of normalcy to Jammu and Kashmir. With a series of such incidents that have taken place in the Jammu region, it is evident that the terrorists and their handlers have a specific design to perpetrate such terrorist acts in the Jammu region to threaten the conduct of the Amarnath Yatra and to drive the narrative of increased violence in these areas.

So, starting with this, what are the primary reasons behind the rising terror incidents in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly in Jammu? What do you think about them?

You see, if you look back since the onset of terrorism or insurgency movement in Kashmir in the late ’80s and early ’90s, whenever there has been a situation where things were brought under control or the situation was moving towards a peaceful environment, there has been some spectacular incident which takes us back. So, this has been the sort of a sine graph which has taken place if you look back in history. In the ’90s it happened, in the 2000s it happened.

If you analyse the insurgency situation during the last couple of years, it has been returning to normalcy. Even after the abrogation of Article 370, there has not been a major incident.

And of late, if you see, in the Lok Sabha election there was a 58 per cent voter turnout, which is one of the highest in many decades. There is also some talk of planned Assembly Elections in Jammu and Kashmir. So, whenever there is a return to normalcy or signs of it, there are people across the border who want to vitiate the atmosphere and then they start instigating such incidents.

The Pakistan Prime Minister (Shehbaz Sharif) and his brother (Nawaz Sharif) also made a reconciliatory statement by saying that the Lahore Agreement was turned back by them, was abrogated by them by resorting to the Kargil episode in 1999. So, there are major stakeholders in Pakistan who don’t want the normalisation of the relationship between Pakistan and India, as also they want that pot boiling In Jammu and Kashmir. In Kashmir Valley, as such, because of the high density of troops and adequate dominance, there is very little room for carrying out high-profile incidents.

Whereas terrain and demography favour such types of incidents in the Jammu region, that is south of Pir Panjal. Even the population can be targeted because of the majority of the Hindu population in most of the areas. Unlike Kashmir, there are certain gaps in the counter-insurgency grid in the Jammu region. Infiltration is possible even south of Pir Panjal including the IB (International Border) areas of Jammu and Kathua. They can also cross the border like normal civilians without weapons and then be provided with weapons within the area.

So, there are multiple routes available for coming into the Jammu region. There are a lot of dense jungles and hilly areas in the Jammu region, south of Pir Panjal, which are sparsely populated.

They all are favourable for guerrilla tactics which they have been resorting to. I think these are the reasons for the rising terror incidents in Jammu of late.

Do you think the upcoming Jammu and Kashmir polls which the government is planning to hold is adding fuel to the fire?

Yes, of course, because like I mentioned before, the successful conduct of Lok Sabha polls had one of the highest turnouts, including in Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag, which have been hotbeds of insurgency all these years. This has possibly rattled the terrorist handlers across the border. If you carry out an analysis of all the terror-related incidents, there has been a huge decline in terror incidents and militancy in the last few years.

I am told that almost 2 crore tourists visited Jammu and Kashmir last year. These are all pointers towards normalcy. The Amarnath Yatra is also seeing huge participation. The large participation of pilgrims will be another pointer and will drive home our case of return to normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir. That is why I think these two are also suitable targets because any disruption in the Amarnath Yatra or Jammu and Kashmir state polls would discredit the Indian government and the security forces.

So, this can also be one of the reasons.

The former Chief of Army Staff, General Manoj Pande, in January, said that there is a lack of human intelligence coming from Jammu and Kashmir. Do you think that has affected ground operations seriously?

See, if you look at how insurgency has panned out in Jammu and Kashmir, in the ’90s and some time till the early 2000s, the insurgency was at its peak even in the Poonch-Rajouri area and Doda-Kishtwar area as well, which is south of Pir Panjal ranges. However, with the focused operations in the late ’90s and early 2000s, the insurgency situation was brought under control in the Jammu region. When I say Jammu region, I primarily refer to Poonch-Rajouri and this Doda-Kishtwar area.

There was a very stable counter-terrorism grid that was established. Then the LC fence had stabilised, insurgency was controlled and some local support to the population was also controlled. But after that, there have been certain gaps and people thought that probably the situation had normalised.

As I mentioned earlier, these are vast areas with very dense jungles and hills, which are very difficult. There is hardly any population in most of these upper reaches, which are just south of Pir Panjal. So, there is a void in those areas, like the former Chief of Army Staff mentioned. Because there is no population or very little population, how do you get intelligence? That is an area the terrorists are taking advantage of. They are primarily ensconced in the upper reaches along the Pir Panjal from where they can go either towards South Kashmir or towards Poonch Rajouri. They could take advantage by coming through the jungles, carrying out certain terror incidents, and then melting back again. It is very difficult to keep track of such movements or get actual intelligence about such possible terror activities.

Also, technical intelligence has dried up because they have stopped using mobile and other devices from which you can generate technical intelligence. So, I agree with what the former Chief mentioned about the reduction in human intelligence as well as technical intelligence.

There was a review meeting on 16 June 2024 chaired by Union Home Minister Amit Shah where it was decided that troops will be brought back to Jammu. Do you think this would help in controlling the situation?

Yes, this will help because there were certain gaps in the deployment of troops in the Jammu region due to the improvement of the situation. The focus had shifted and some of the troops were reoriented. Some troops were shifted towards Ladakh after the Galwan incident. This created some voids. So, the induction of additional troops will improve the capability of the security forces to dominate more areas and appropriately address terrorist groups.

Now, since there are so many important military stations in the Jammu region, we have the 16th Corps at Nagrota, Northern Command in Udhampur and the Sunjuwan Military Station. Do you think all these stations are vulnerable to militant attacks no matter how high the security level is?

You see, in such situations, basically, in the absence of any specific intelligence, if you look at it very dispassionately, the initiative is always with the perpetrator. If a group of highly motivated terrorists want to carry out an attack on any of these military stations, in the absence of intelligence, they will be able to initiate the action. But thereafter, their neutralisation would depend on the reaction and proper drills and procedures in these camps.

It has happened several times: wherever there has been some complacency or lapses in the security procedure, we have suffered casualties. There have also been occasions where people have reacted appropriately and then terrorists have been neutralised without suffering any losses. But the possibility will always be there because there are several such vulnerable or high-profile military installations, not only military but other installations as well, in the Jammu region.

It is up to the security forces and intelligence agencies to negate such misadventures by the terrorists. The vulnerability will remain.

Regarding the movement of convoys or military vehicles in such vulnerable areas like Dera Ki Gali (DKG), and Bhimber Gali, how do you control that? Because the attack may happen at any time and because of the terrain, the terrorists get the advantage. What sort of exercise do you recommend to control these things?

There has to be, as you mentioned, proper road-opening drills carried out in all these vulnerable areas. While on the move, certain laid-down drills and procedures need to be strictly adhered to.

Firstly, the movement of security forces has to be controlled in those areas. Proper road-opening drills have to be carried out, and then while on the move, adherence to SOPs must be ensured. This can minimise losses. The initiative will always be with the perpetrators, but adherence to SOPs will minimise losses and help neutralise the terrorists.

So, when you mentioned road-opening parties, which are quite important, now after 17 years, it has been discovered that liquid explosives, which are difficult to detect, have made a comeback in Kashmir. They are not caught either by sniffer dogs or the other machinery used to detect explosives. How do you deal with that?

It’s a game between the terrorists and their handlers on one side and the security forces and the government on the other. Whether in terms of explosives, tactics, or strategies, whoever takes the initiative and properly evolves their strategy and tactics and exploit technology will be in an advantageous position. Terrorists always come up with something new to ensure their aims are achieved.

We have to evolve methods of detecting these explosive devices, including those using liquid explosives. Procedures must be put in place properly and adherence to the SOPs while on the move must be ensured. That’s how we will be able to defeat the terrorists’ designs.

Coming to the final question, what is your assessment of the future of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir?

As long as there is backing from across the border, it will be difficult to completely eradicate terrorism. The intensity can vary, but the presence of terrorist activities will be there unless the root cause of this terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir is addressed. Terror handlers want more instability to discredit our government and negate the narrative that peace and normalcy have returned to Jammu and Kashmir and that people have accepted the abrogation of Article 370.

Terror handlers would like to resort to incidents like targeting pilgrims coming back from Shiv Khori, which gives a lot of visibility to them and discredits our security forces. Their focus is likely to continue on guerrilla tactics and carrying out incidents that give them more visibility.

Terrorist activities are likely to continue as long as the bases across the border are active and handlers keep funding these activities. Our security forces must be on guard, address infiltration, ensure drones are not used for dropping weapons, and work with the local population to ensure they don’t support terrorist groups. Exploiting technology to address emerging tactics and strategies used by terrorists is also crucial. Terrorism is here to stay unless the root causes are removed, but the intensity may keep varying. That’s my take.

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Why is Jammu seeing more terror attacks, what must security agencies do: Former army commander says…