As the nation’s media fixates on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia on 9 July 2024, a critical piece of news from Reuters almost slipped through the cracks — India is set to pour a staggering $1 billion into hydropower plants in Arunachal Pradesh amid a volatile border dispute with China. But that’s not all. Another dire report from the same day has been dangerously overlooked: the death toll from Assam’s relentless floods has surged to 79 since May. These flood casualties which are already high will simply multiply if a catastrophic failure in any of the proposed dams in Arunachal Pradesh happen in the future. The existing dams in Arunachal Pradesh are already causing mayhem downstream when they are forced to release surplus water when it breaches a dam’s maximum threshold.
Naturally, Assam, downstream and encircled by Arunachal Pradesh, faces an imminent threat. It doesn’t take a genius to foresee the catastrophic potential. A disaster at any of these upstream hydroelectric dams would unleash a deluge of biblical proportions on the densely populated regions below. We are staring at an impending apocalypse.
Is India ignoring warning signs?
On February 7, 2021, the chilling image of the obliterated Tapovan Vishnugad Hydroelectric Project, captured by the Indian Air Force, exploded across social media, laying bare the raw, unforgiving power of nature and the sheer vulnerability of massive hydroelectric projects. Over 150 lives were thrown into chaos as a devastating flash flood reduced the project to rubble. The majority of the dead and missing were unsuspecting workers, cruelly swept away by the torrent. The sheer ferocity of the floodwaters was evident, with water levels recorded at a staggering 1,388 metres at Joshimath by 11 am on that fateful day. To put it into perspective, during the catastrophic 2013 flash flood, the highest flood level in the same area was 1,385.54 metres. This latest disaster eclipsed that benchmark, underscoring the relentless and unpredictable wrath of nature.
In August last year, the Government of India and the Government of Arunachal Pradesh teamed up to revive and launch 12 stalled hydroelectric power projects in the state. A memorandum was signed marking the allotment of these projects with a combined capacity of about 11,517 MW. Of the 12 projects, five with a capacity of 2,620 MW was assigned to North Eastern Electric Power Corporation Ltd. (NEEPCO), another five with a capacity of 5,097 MW to Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd (SJVN) and the remaining two with a capacity of 3,800 MW to National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC).
These projects were initially assigned to private sector developers around 15 years ago but never progressed due to various challenges. The government believes that developing these projects will help meet India’s Nationally Determined Contribution goal of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil energy capacity by 2030. Hydropower is also seen as a key player in reaching the target of Net Zero carbon emissions by 2070. Additionally, these projects are expected to bring an estimated investment of about Rs 1,26,500 crore to Arunachal Pradesh.
India’s persistent pursuit of hydroelectric power
India’s commitment to hydroelectric power remains strong despite the high risks and substantial costs involved. The 43rd report by the Standing Committee on Energy (2018-19) in the 16th Lok Sabha highlighted a significant underutilisation of potential: out of a possible 2,41,844 MW of hydro power, including pumped storage schemes, only 45,399.22 MW has been harnessed.
The committee emphasised the benefits of hydropower—clean, green, sustainable, and cost-effective—and urged for its optimal utilisation with a mission-driven approach and clear timelines, similar to the development strategies for solar and other renewable energy sources.
Currently, hydropower contributes 2,700 TWh (terawatt-hours) annually to global electricity production. It accounts for at least 50?per cent of electricity generation in 66 countries and at least 90?per cent in 24 countries. Despite the potential for catastrophic impact in the event of failures, the overall accident rate for dams remains relatively low. Data from the International Commission on Large Dams indicates that the failure rate of dams is around 1?per cent, and this rate has decreased significantly over the past 40 years. This data considers approximately 36,000 large dams listed in the World Register of Dams, with about 300 reported accidents.
On August 10, 2021, former Union Minister for Power and New and Renewable Energy, RK Singh, informed the Rajya Sabha about the government’s efforts to boost hydropower development in India. Several key policies have been put in place, including the National Electricity Policy 2005, the National Tariff Policy 2016, the National Rehabilitation and Resettlement Policy 2007, and the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act 2013.
To further promote the hydropower sector, the government introduced new measures on March 8, 2019. These include recognising large hydro projects (over 25 MW) as renewable energy sources, implementing tariff rationalisation to lower hydropower costs, providing budgetary support for flood moderation and storage hydroelectric projects, and funding infrastructure like roads and bridges. Additionally, the Hydro Purchase Obligation (HPO) trajectory for 2021-22 to 2029-30 was announced on January 29, 2021. These initiatives are aimed at advancing hydropower development and integrating it into the broader renewable energy strategy.
A government report dated April 5, 2024, highlights that India is currently constructing hydroelectric power projects with a total capacity of 15 GW. By 2031-32, the country’s hydro capacity is expected to grow from 42 GW to 67 GW, representing an increase of over 50?per cent.
Hydropower projects in the Himalayan region benefit from the base flow contributed by snowmelt, meaning that higher temperatures will result in greater snowmelt runoff.
Hydroelectric power has been a crucial component of India’s energy mix, offering vital peaking support to the electricity grid and enhancing the power system’s reliability and resilience.
In line with India’s ambitious goals outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) under the COP Paris Agreement—which include reducing the emissions intensity of GDP by 45?per cent from 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving 50?per cent of installed electric power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030—the government is actively promoting hydropower development to ensure rapid progress.
Downstream in perennial panic
The catastrophic collapse of the 520 MW Tapovan Vishnugad Hydroelectric Project, owned by NTPC, struck fear into the hearts of those living downstream of existing and planned hydro projects. Whether NTPC conducted comprehensive dam break scenario studies remains unknown, but the disaster rendered any such studies futile. The sudden disappearance of the dam in Uttarakhand deeply unsettled people, particularly those living downstream of operational or under-construction projects. A prime example is the residents of the Brahmaputra Valley in Assam, who face the full impact of potential failures in the numerous small and large hydropower projects planned in Arunachal Pradesh.
The fear of large-scale destruction due to dam failures is a constant presence in the minds of downstream residents. A parliamentary panel did acknowledge the dangers in its report. “There have also been concerns of flooding in downstream areas in case of failure of large hydro dams. Various anti-dam movements, local agitation, and R&R related issues indicate that wide-scale apprehensions are present in the minds of local people due to construction of big dams,” it said.
Arunachal Pradesh is home to five major river basins: Kameng, Subansiri, Siang, Dibang, and Lohit, all of which feed into the Brahmaputra River. The Central Electricity Authority estimates that Arunachal Pradesh has the potential to generate over 57,000 MW of hydropower, in addition to approximately 1,600 MW from micro, mini and small hydel projects. As part of the Prime Minister’s 50,000 MW hydropower initiative, the Union Ministry of Power identified 89 hydroelectric projects in Arunachal Pradesh.
The Subansiri River Basin alone has a hydropower potential of 10,968 MW, while the Dibang River Basin can generate up to 9,973 MW, and the Lohit River Basin has an estimated capacity of 8,217.90 MW. The sheer scale of these projects amplifies the fears of those living downstream, where the risk of catastrophic failure looms large.
Importance of dam break analysis and disaster management
Discussing the significance of dam break analysis in an earlier interview with Firstpost, Uma Baruah, former additional chief engineer at the water resource department in Assam, emphasised its critical role in evaluating potential downstream devastation based on floodwater height and reach over various timeframes. He noted that such analysis is essential for assessing the extent of damage downstream relative to floodwater dynamics emphasising its importance in dam planning. However, Baruah also observed that, as seen in Uttarakhand, no structure can completely prevent such catastrophic events.
According to guidelines from the Union Ministry of Power, conducting a dam break analysis and developing a disaster management plan are mandatory for both new greenfield projects and expansions of existing brownfield projects, particularly to address risks in downstream areas vulnerable to flooding.
The extent to which this data is publicly available for each project and the specific government strategies for managing potential catastrophic events remain unclear.
Challenges with run of river dams
Despite assurances from the Government of India about the benefits of run of river technology for downstream communities, recent events and international concerns paint a different picture. When China defended its plans for a large-scale dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) using similar logic, India expressed immediate apprehensions.
While run of river dams are touted as less disruptive to downstream areas by maintaining water flow, they are not foolproof. No dam, regardless of its design, can fully shield against devastating floods like those witnessed at the Tapovan Vishnugad Hydroelectric Project. The distinction between run of river and conventional dams becomes irrelevant in such catastrophic scenarios.
Despite providing a sense of security against dry periods, run of river schemes pose unique challenges during flood seasons. The Kurichu Dam in Bhutan, operated by India’s Central Water Commission under a run of river setup, has repeatedly caused havoc downstream in Lower Assam by sudden, large-scale water releases during monsoons. Similar incidents occurred in 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2016, exacerbated by upstream cloud bursts.
Similar concerns surround the operations of public power sector firm NEEPCO, managing the 405 MW Ranganadi Hydro Electric Plant in Arunachal Pradesh’s Lower Subansiri district. Discharges from the plant frequently inundate vast areas in Assam’s Lakhimpur district downstream, resulting in significant losses to livestock and property.
A call for responsible action
As India propels itself towards ambitious hydropower goals, the overlooked risks are becoming increasingly evident. The recent decision to invest $1 billion in Arunachal Pradesh’s hydropower plants amid rising flood casualties downstream in Assam underscores a perilous oversight. The potential for catastrophic dam failures looms large, threatening to unleash devastation of biblical proportions upon vulnerable communities. The catastrophic collapse of the Tapovan Vishnugad Hydroelectric Project serves as a stark reminder of nature’s unyielding power and the profound vulnerability of such mega-projects.
India’s persistent pursuit of hydropower expansion necessitates a paradigm shift towards comprehensive risk assessment, robust disaster management planning and transparent communication with affected communities. The stakes are high and the nation cannot afford to neglect the grave implications of its hydroelectric ambitions. A proactive approach, grounded in rigorous safety standards and informed by the hard-learned lessons of past tragedies is imperative to safeguard lives and mitigate environmental impact.
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Should Assam be worried about Arunachal’s billion-dollar hydropower plants?
