With PM Modi taking special interest in southern states, particularly Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the BJP hopes to make significant inroads in these states in this election. The BJP failed to win a seat in both these states in 2019 and is often dismissed as a “NOTA party” in Tamil Nadu, as party leader K Annamalai put it.
In the last election, the BJP got about 4% votes in Tamil Nadu. This time, Annamalai says, the BJP will win a double-digit vote share in the state.
In Kerala, the BJP polled more than 10% votes in 2019. This time, it hopes to win a couple of seats from Kerala that sends 20 members to the Lok Sabha. Like Tamil Nadu, Kerala has seen two-dimensional contests for decades. The BJP aims to emerge as the third force in both the states — breaking the DMK-AIADMK polarity in Tamil Nadu, and CPM-Congress cycle in Kerala.
These two states, including one seat of Puducherry, send 60 members to the Lok Sabha. The BJP had failed to open its account in 2019, giving its critics an opportunity to brand it as a “North India” party.
The other states with key contests are West Bengal and Odisha. They collectively send 63 members to the Lok Sabha. Of the 42 seats in Bengal, ruled by the Trinamool Congress of CM Mamata Banerjee, the BJP had won 18 in 2019.
This time, the BJP is predicted to win a majority of seats from Bengal, posing a serious challenge to the TMC’s might in its stronghold.
Similarly, in Odisha, CM Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal has ruled the state since 2000. In 2019, the BJP emerged as a threat to the dominance of the BJD, winning eight of the 21 Lok Sabha seats from the state. It polled 38% votes — a jump of 16 percentage points over 2014.
The BJD got 43% votes for its 12 seats. The other seat went to the Congress, which polled 13% votes. This time, the BJP is aiming to win a majority of the Lok Sabha seats from Odisha.
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