India’s population growth is slowing, but the working-age population is set to increase, with projections indicating that it may reach 64.4 per cent by the upcoming Census, according to a report by SBI Research.
The proportion of people aged 15-59, who are considered to be of working age, has steadily risen from 55.4 per cent in 1991 to 60.7 per cent in 2021. The report predicts this will further climb to 65.2 per cent by 2031.
This rise comes amid a declining average annual population growth rate, which has dropped from 2.2 per cent in 1971 to a projected 1.0 per cent in 2024. This marks a big slowdown, with the national population expected to fall within the range of 138-142 crore in 2024.
The demographic shift also reflects a declining share of children aged 0-14 years, which fell from 30.9 per cent in 2011 to an estimated 24.3 per cent in 2024.
At the same time, India’s elderly population continues to grow, projected to reach 10.7 per cent in 2024 and potentially 13.1 per cent by 2031, up from 8.4 per cent in 2011.
These trends highlight a key transformation in India’s demographic structure. While the nation is becoming increasingly urbanised—with urban population expected to rise to 35-37 per cent by 2024, from 31.1 per cent in 2011—regional variations are notable.
Southern states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana are experiencing population growth declines, while northern states, particularly Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, continue to drive overall population increases.
India’s median age is also rising, expected to increase from 24 years in 2021 to around 28-29 years in 2024.
This shift places India as one of the youngest countries globally, but with rapid urbanisation, the number of million-plus cities is expected to expand from 52 in 2011 to between 75-80 by 2024.
Despite these challenges, the report underscores a potentially bright future for India, which is projected to contribute about 25 per cent of the incremental global workforce over the next decade, a crucial factor as developed countries experience an aging population.
As India’s demographic dividend grows, it could serve as a powerful multiplier for economic growth in the coming years.
With inputs from agencies
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India’s population growth slows but working age ratio rises, may reach 64% by 2031: SBI Research
