India is expected to experience above-average temperatures in February. The key wheat- and rapeseed-producing states in the country are likely to see maximum temperatures rise to 5° Celsius above normal on some days.
That would pose a potential threat to crops, Reuters cited two weather bureau sources as saying.
As the world’s second-largest wheat producer, India is relying on a strong harvest in 2025 to avoid costly imports following three consecutive years of poor yields. A sudden rise in temperatures in February and March 2022 damaged crops, prompting the government to ban wheat exports.
If higher temperatures persist during the grain formation stage, yields could decline for a fourth straight year, potentially reducing total production. This could force the government to cut or remove the 40 per cent import duty on wheat to offset shortages.
Northern, central, and eastern states are expected to experience above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures in February, according to a senior official at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), who spoke on condition of anonymity ahead of the weather office’s official forecast on Friday.
“On a few days of February, maximum temperatures could rise 5 degrees Celsius above average in some states,” the official said.
The states of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh in northern India, along with Madhya Pradesh in central India, are among the country’s top wheat-growing regions.
“In the second half of February, daytime temperatures in the northern and northwestern parts of the country could see a sharp rise,” another IMD official said.
Winter crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cool weather during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.
“If temperatures remain higher than normal for a prolonged period, it can negatively impact yields by creating moisture stress,” said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India, a Mumbai-based brokerage.
Lower production and a sharp drawdown in state reserves have already driven wheat prices to a record Rs 33,250 ($384.05) per metric ton earlier this month.
A decline in rapeseed production could also increase India’s reliance on vegetable oil imports. India, the world’s largest vegetable oil importer, may need to step up purchases, a Mumbai-based trader with a global trade house said.
The area under rapeseed cultivation, India’s primary oilseed crop, has already declined from last year.
With inputs from Reuters
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