Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, goes the famous adage. And it proved true amidst the counting for the Haryana elections.
Early morning trends — counting began at 8 am — showed the Congress surging ahead with some television channels calling it a Congress Tsunami. However, by 10 am, the script flipped and the BJP now appears to be on course to win in the state for a historic third term.
With the BJP set to secure 48 seats in a 90-member House, we take a closer look at why this win is significant to the saffron party.
Haryana poll swing
Even before counting began on Tuesday (October 8), the Congress was in a celebratory mood as exit polls had predicted a win for the party in the state of Haryana. Most exit polls had predicted an easy win for the Congress party in Haryana, with the C-Voter-India Today exit poll going Congress 50-58 seats and the BJP 20-28 seats in Haryana.
And that mood continued when counting for the Haryana Assembly election results began at 8 am. At one point, the Congress was ahead in 60 seats, surpassing the majority mark of 46 seats. Party workers were seen on television distributing sweets and some senior leaders were expressing exuberance over the party’s performance.
However, as counting progressed, the narrative changed and a
saffron wave swept through the state, which it had ruled for the last 10 years.
At last count, the Election Commission of India (ECI) data revealed that the BJP was in the front with 49 seats while the Congress was trailing behind with 35 seats. Meanwhile, Independents had secured four wins, with the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) winning one seat each.
Third time’s a charm
If trends hold, this would mark a third victory for the BJP in the state of Haryana. It’s even more significant as no party has formed the government in Haryana for three consecutive times. In fact, before 2014, the BJP was an insignificant player. It was the Modi wave that carried the BJP to a win that year, winning 47 of the 90 seats.
In 2019, it won 40 seats — 46 is needed for a simple majority — but was able to return to power with the support of Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which won 10 seats.
Anti-incumbency & leadership struggles
This win is even more significant for the BJP as it has had to battle the anti-incumbency wave of 10 years. There’s also the poor performance of the party in the state in the Lok Sabha elections. In the 2024 general elections, the saffron party managed to win just five of the 10 Lok Sabha seats with 46.1 per cent of the votes, while the Congress managed to snatch the remaining seats and polled 43.7 per cent votes. The BJP’s vote share declined by 12 per cent from 58 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The last-minute leadership change — from Manohar Lal Khattar to present Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini — also seemed to be an issue for the BJP. Moreover, senior leaders such as state BJP president Mohan Lal Badoli and former MP Sanjay Bhatia chose to sit out of the October 5 Assembly elections.
BJP’s caste calculations
The win also is a vindication of BJP’s electoral arithmetic — consolidating all non-Jat votes. The Jats make up a significant voting bloc in the state, and the Congress heavily depends on their support. A reaffirmation of their importance can be seen from the CM choices in the state. CMs from the Jat community have ruled the state for 33 years.
It was in 2014 when the BJP swept to power that it ended a long rule of Congress’ Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a tall leader from the Jat community. The BJP then appointed Manohar Lal Khattar — a Punjab Khatri — to the CM’s chair.
When the BJP was unable to attain majority on its own in 2019, it sought support from JJP leader Dushyant Chautala, another tall Jat leader.
Impact on other elections
The win in Haryana will also bode well for the BJP as it prepares for political battles in others states, starting with Maharashtra. As political commentator and author Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay told India Today, “Haryana presents the first real opportunity for the BJP to reverse the downward trend witnessed during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. A win here could set the stage for improved performance in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and eventually Delhi.”
Maharashtra is set to go to the polls soon, with the Assembly ending in November. Jharkhand will also go to elections soon.
The capital Delhi will also go to polls early next year, with some speculating that it will be held in February 2025.
With inputs from agencies
Link to article –
Haryana election results 2024: Why BJP’s hat-trick in the state is of significance
