In an exclusive interview with Firstpost Managing Editor Palki Sharma at the Chanakya Defence Dialogue in New Delhi on Tuesday, Indian Army chief General Upendra Dwivedi discussed a range of critical issues including the ongoing India-China border standoff at the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh and the persistent unrest in Manipur, which has remained unstable for over a year. He also touched upon broader topics such as the war in Lebanon, India’s push for self-reliance in defence through initiatives like the Agnipath scheme and the evolving conflict in West Asia. General Dwivedi provided valuable insights into these pressing matters, shedding light on the challenges and strategies shaping India’s defence posture.
On China
You took charge three months back and it’s been a period of churn for the neighbourhood. Would you say that China is still the biggest security challenge for India? And how do you assess the situation at the border given the high levels of troop deployment and the tensions alongside statements from the Chinese side saying there is progress, more convergence and fewer differences?
So, I have taken three months, but it has 40 years of experience behind it, of course. As far as China is concerned, it has been intriguing our minds for quite some time. I keep saying with China you have to compete, you have to cooperate, you have to coexist, you have to confront and contest.
So what’s the situation today?
As we are looking at the positive signalling coming from the diplomatic side, we must understand that the diplomatic side gives you options and possibilities. However, when it comes to execution on the ground, it is dependent on the military commanders on both sides who have to make those decisions.
So what’s the situation today?
It’s stable but not normal and it’s sensitive. If that be the case, what are we wanting? We want the situation that was there pre-April 2020 to be restored, whether in terms of ground occupation, buffer zones that have been created, or patrolling that has been planned as of now. Until that situation is restored, the situation will remain sensitive and we are fully operationally prepared to face any contingencies that may arise. Trust has become the biggest casualty.
So do you see progress? Because that is the word that is being used a lot, that there is progress. Do you see a possible deal on say Demchok or some other place?
From April 20, we see that over time both sides have been sitting together. Diplomatic parley has been taking place. We have had approximately 17 HMCL or core commander-level conferences and 21 WMCC conferences. We have come a long way in resolving whatever low-hanging fruit there were.
When it comes to the difficult situations where we have differing perceptions from both sides, it means that both sides need to negotiate a win-win situation. Some indication has been given from both the diplomatic side. Now the military side will sit together and see how this can be translated on the ground.
Everything we can think of is on the table along the northern front, and it also includes Depsang and Demchok.
China has also been building a lot of infrastructure including these so-called model villages along the border in an attempt to assert its territorial claims, and India has recently started building such villages, mostly in Arunachal Pradesh. Does it help in countering Chinese expansionism?
Let me first clarify. China is constructing those villages close to the Line of Actual Control, but in most cases, the population is not there. They are carrying out artificial immigration and artificial settlement. No problem. It’s their country and they can do whatever they want. However, we see what’s happening in South China, where initially, we find fishermen and others in the forefront, and then the military moves in to save them.
So, is it leading to some kind of a grey zone where the causation may look simple but may have a grand design behind it? That’s what we need to look into. As far as the Indian Army is concerned, we have been having these kinds of model villages and we have been carrying out this job. We have resources in place. What is more important is that the state governments have now been empowered to put in those resources.
This is the time where the army, state government and supervision by the Central government are all coming together. The model villages being established now will be much better. I will quote our Prime Minister from April 1, 2023, when he spoke about the vibrant village programs. He said what I am looking for from the army is basically to provide the soul to these villages.
What that means, if you translate it, is cultural revival, building trust among the local population, ensuring they feel supported by all of India, and promoting tourism so they feel important wherever they are staying.
On Jammu and Kahsmir
How do you describe the current security situation in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly in the context of the ongoing elections?
Before I address the present situation, I must reference August 2019, a pivotal moment. After the abrogation of Article 370, I met with the wife of an active politician who shared that her children now clearly understand which country’s flag to draw in school. This clarity about Jammu and Kashmir’s relationship with India has emerged since then.
If we analyse the current situation through various indicators, we see improvements. For example, the Amarnath Yatra has seen over two crores of tourists in 2023, which is a significant increase from the previous decade. On the terrorism front, there have only been two new recruits in 2024, compared to hundreds in earlier years. All these parameters indicate a movement towards peace and prosperity.
We initially concentrated our efforts on southern Kashmir, which allowed for development in those areas. However, certain regions were left somewhat unaddressed. Recently, adversaries have targeted these areas, introducing foreign terrorists.
In response, we have reoriented and revitalised our security forces, particularly focussing on revamping the police. The effectiveness of the police is crucial for stabilising the state, and empowering them is a key priority.
What explains the shift in terrorist activity from Kashmir to Jammu?
The shift can be attributed to our focus on development in southern Kashmir, which has allowed for greater peace and stability. However, certain regions, especially in Jammu, were not as closely monitored, making them targets for adversaries. These adversaries, primarily foreign terrorists, have now started to infiltrate and operate in these previously less targeted areas.
On Manipur
You visited Manipur last month, which has been gripped by ethnic violence for more than a year. This is exacerbated by its shared border with Myanmar, a country dealing with its own problems, raising concerns about spillover. What is your assessment of the ground situation in Manipur?
The situation in Manipur, which began in May 2023, started with a rumour that an Anglo-Kuki War Centenary gate was being burnt, though this was not the case. After going on the ground and confirming the facts, it became evident that rumour-mongering triggered major violence, which continues today. This has become a battle of narratives, leading to polarisation between communities. While the situation appears stable, tensions remain. There are several factors to consider, including the internally displaced population, which peaked at 60,000 but has now decreased to below 40,000. The society has also become somewhat weaponised due to the looting of arms. Women’s organisations and underground groups have emerged for defensive purposes, and battle lines are hardening.
Our approach has been clear: a whole-of-nation strategy is required. The army and Assam Rifles have deployed around 126 columns in coordination with other stakeholders to restore trust and stabilise the situation. This will take time, as social fractures do not heal quickly. We have also successfully recovered around 25 per cent of the weapons looted, along with many locally-made weapons. Moreover, we are closely working with ex-servicemen, who act as a beacon of national integration and social harmony, to explore possible ways forward.
Are there concerns about foreign assistance to certain militant groups from Myanmar?
The history of Manipur is complex. There used to be valley-based insurgent groups (VBS) that were supported from across the border. Now, similar allegations are arising about other groups. However, we are ensuring that false narratives do not gain traction. For example, there were rumors about bomb drones and the infiltration of 900 anti-national elements, but our ground checks confirmed that these claims were false. Controlling such misinformation is crucial to maintaining stability.
As for external support, Myanmar is dealing with its own issues, and some displaced people have crossed into India, especially into Mizoram and Manipur. These individuals are unarmed and seeking shelter, and India, as a compassionate nation, is providing them with shelter and support until the situation improves.
On self-reliance
Globally, geopolitical alliances are shifting, and self-reliance seems to be a winning strategy. India has focussed on this for a while, especially in defence. How do you assess the progress in defence development, production, and technological innovation? Are we meeting our goals?
Recent wars have shown us that they are characterised by long durations, mass firepower and on-the-ground innovation. To sustain such efforts, arms, ammunition and platforms must be domestically produced. This ensures the ability to modify platforms and adapt to evolving situations. When relying on external sources, modifications become difficult due to a lack of intellectual property rights (IPR), technology, or spare parts.
The Indian Army has committed to ensuring that more than 85 per cent of our acquisitions are of Indian origin. Our motto, Swadeshi Karyani Shakaar, emphasises this. We are actively contributing to the positive indigenisation list, with 176 out of 509 items sponsored by the Indian Army. Programmes like iDEX and Aatmanirbhar Bharat are playing a significant role, and the Make I and Make II initiatives in DAP 2020 are fostering Indian industry investment. So far, we have invested approximately Rs1.13 lakh crore.
Furthermore, public sector undertakings (PSUs) have been corporatised, meaning they are evolving into self-sustaining entities. In the meantime, we are providing support to ensure their success. Simultaneously, we are creating a healthy ecosystem for private industry, assuring them of our commitment.
You also mentioned grey zone warfare. Given that modern conflicts increasingly involve non-military means, how is India poised for this? We’ve seen instances like Israel’s infiltration of Hezbollah’s network, and our own leaders, such as General Bipin Rawat, have spoken about India’s two-and-a-half-front war. Are we making progress in preparing for these conflicts?
The army has always been preparing, much like a surgeon who practices on mannequins for years before operating on a real patient. We all understand that wars will come when they come, but the time in between – in the grey zone – requires preparation.
Take examples like the Doklam standoff, Kargil, or Galwan. Do we call them full-fledged wars? No, but they are part of the grey zone. We need to be ready for that space. Tactical missteps can lead to strategic ramifications, involving the whole nation.
To deal with this, we need common thinking at all levels, from commanding officers to the Chief of Army Staff. Grey zone warfare involves cyber, electronic warfare and the cognitive domain, especially the battle of narratives. This isn’t just about dealing with adversaries but also about protecting our own population, including the defence community of 1.3 million people.
We must manage the degree of delegation needed for effective action in the grey zone, and we are developing measures to address this at various levels.
You’ve also discussed India’s defence manufacturing and enabling private and public sectors. Recently, India placed an order for 73,000 SIG Sauer firearms, but some Indian weapons manufacturers questioned why we didn’t use domestically made weapons. How do we balance strategic needs with the Make in India initiative?
That’s a very valid question. Let me take you back to the American Civil War, where the range of weapons was just 75 metres. Soldiers would hide behind logs, fire and then reload. Fast forward to 1988 when I was part of the team that introduced the 5.56 INSAS rifle. The rifle and light machine guns were approved, but we held on to 7.62 mm LMGs because they were tried and tested.
Over time, India has fallen behind in some areas of weapons technology, especially small arms. I’ve been involved in procurement since 2012, and every year, private manufacturers would say, “We can provide this, subject to…” That “subject to” always created delays.
For instance, when I was the Director General of Infantry, I visited a firm in Bangalore. They made a great sniper rifle, but the rifling was done abroad, the barrel was imported, and the ammunition was sourced from somewhere else. We have the capability in parts but haven’t been able to integrate everything fully.
Regarding the SIG Sauer, it’s one of the best rifles globally, with a range of 500 metres. In 2019, under General Rawat, this rifle was approved specifically for the infantry’s frontline troops. A soldier’s weapon isn’t just for killing but also for protecting himself. The 500-meter range is critical because soldiers need that buffer distance for safety.
Now, we are balancing this with Make in India. We’re producing the AK-203 in collaboration with Russia, and that will meet the needs of many units. Other rifles, LMGs, and carbines are also coming through the Make in India initiative.
What specific steps are being taken to improve the defence acquisition process?
The Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) was initially designed to ensure fair and transparent acquisition of imported items. However, with Atmanirbhar Bharat in focus, we need to be more open and adaptable. One initiative we have introduced is the Emergency Procurement (EP), where 100 per cent of the items procured have been indigenised. We are also working on an accelerated procurement programme, led by our Deputy Chief of Army Staff, with support from the Ministry of Defence.
Another important factor is technology. It is advancing so quickly that if we delay by a year, we will be left with outdated tools. To address this, we are decoupling the standard acquisition procedure from technology acquisition, allowing us to move more rapidly and stay ahead of technological advancements.
On West Asia
Let’s talk about the war in West Asia, which is clearly expanding. This morning, I got a news flash that the ground offensive has begun in Lebanon, and the Israelis have become involved. Where do you think this is heading?
Let me take your point on the ground offensive. The Israeli strategy, often referred to as “mowing the grass,” is aimed at temporarily quelling threats. They know it will rise again, and they’ll deal with it again. But this time, Israel has adopted a different approach.
If you read The India Way by our external affairs minister, he discusses how, when faced with two opposing sides, you must decide which one to handle first. In the context of the Mahabharata, Abhimanyu wasn’t supposed to fight in the Chakravyuh—it was intended for Yudhishthir or Arjun. Arjun was challenged elsewhere, and Abhimanyu was left alone. Similarly, Israel has decided that Hamas is its primary focus. They first neutralised Hamas opposition and then considered the other front.
What you’re seeing is not an immediate response—it’s the result of years of preparation. The war doesn’t start when you begin fighting; it starts the day you begin planning.
My second question is about the disturbing precedents being set in this conflict, particularly the use of everyday gadgets like pagers and walkie-talkies being turned into bombs. This makes people feel like we’re all vulnerable, as we all carry gadgets. Does India share this concern, and what are we doing to ensure we’re not at the receiving end of something similar?
Yes, the concern is valid. The supply chain interruption and interception are things we must be very vigilant about. We need multiple levels of inspection—both technological and manual—on imports to ensure such scenarios don’t play out here. The threat is real, and India has to be proactive in securing against it.
On defence diplomacy
The government has set ambitious goals for a Viksit Bharat by 2047. Security will clearly play a key role in this. What is India’s strategic vision for 2047, specifically in terms of defence and security?
A: When we talk about a prosperous nation in 2047, two prefixes are essential—progressive and peaceful. The security of the nation is provided by our military—the Army, Navy, and Air Force together. As the security guarantors, we must have the capability to fight wars on multiple fronts, acting as a deterrent.
On the internal security side, we are well-prepared to handle threats from the western and eastern borders. The grey zone—where war isn’t always declared but is ongoing—is an emerging area of concern. From denial, we’ve moved to realisation of these threats, and now is the time to act.
In addition to defence, our defence diplomacy plays a critical role. Whether it’s encouraging defence exports, exchanging best practices with other countries, or contributing to global peacekeeping forces, India has a vital part to play in shaping international defece strategies.
Theaterisation has been a key part of the 2047 roadmap, and some concerns have been raised about the army having more control due to its size and presence. How do you address those concerns, and is India ready for this?
While the army has significant resources, the control won’t solely lie with them. Our first CDS (Chief of Defence Staff) laid a solid foundation, and under General Anil Chauhan, we’ve achieved significant consensus among the three services. The structure and planning are ready for presentation to decision-makers.
The idea is to have jointness across all forces. In Jointness 1.0, we began consolidating courses, joint logistics nodes, and other structures. Now, with Jointness 2.0, we’re integrating culture, thinking and processes. We’ve achieved about 30 per cent of the jointness goals so far and are progressing rapidly.
As for the army’s role, it’s important to understand that land forces, which include the army, will remain crucial due to their larger presence in the field. But even more significant is the integration of cyber, space and cognitive warfare, which will require a multi-domain approach. The theatre commander will not always be from the army. They could come from any branch, depending on the situation.
On Agnipath and women empowerment
The government is also considering changes to the Agnipath scheme, including increasing the retention rate. Some say this is a politically motivated move, but it will impact the force you lead. What is your take on this?
When women first entered the army, we didn’t know how to handle it. Over time, we evolved, building on those early experiences. Similarly, the Agnipath scheme is evolving.
By December 2024, we’ll have about 100,000 Agniveers in the army. The feedback from the ground has been excellent. Commanders are happy because these recruits are enthusiastic and eager to learn. Initially, we were concerned about competition between them, but instead, there’s a high degree of cooperation.
The recruitment process has improved, too. We now conduct written exams before physical assessments, ensuring we select individuals who are mentally and physically well-suited. It’s a process of continuous evolution, and changes like increasing the age limit for ITI-qualified personnel are already on the table. When further decisions are made, I’ll be happy to share them with you.
On the topic of women’s empowerment, it’s clear that strides have been made in the armed forces. Do you see more women playing larger roles, especially in combat?
Yes, women’s empowerment is an important aspect of the Indian military’s evolution. We’ve deployed female engagement teams in various operations and their contributions have been significant. In fact, we’re one of the few countries actively promoting this, especially in line with UN initiatives like Resolution 1325, which focuses on women’s participation in peace and security.
We’ve had discussions with countries like Japan and others on women’s involvement in security roles. Over time, I believe you will see more women in combat roles and higher leadership positions. It’s not just about including women. It’s about recognising their ability to contribute meaningfully across all levels.
On AI
Of course, we’ve talked about technological advancements. AI is something many countries are discussing, and recently, about 60 nations gathered in South Korea to sign an agreement on using AI in the military. We understand it’s the future, but it still feels like the Wild West. Do you think we have enough understanding and safeguards in place to deal with it?
Whenever you carry out an evolution, there will always be insecurities and uncertainties, but that doesn’t stop you from moving forward. When it comes to technology, we have 16 technology clusters with principal staff officers overseeing them. That’s point number one.
Regarding AI, data becomes extremely important. AI, in its mature form, comes much later. First, we need data, and then we should be able to analyse it through predictive analysis. Only then can we move towards advanced AI, including machine learning, evolving AI and generative AI.
We’ve established regional training nodes and collaborated with institutions like the IITs to work toward this goal. We also have a ‘single source of truth’ system evolving within the Indian Army’s information framework. While we have data in various places, it must be gradually integrated, ensuring no confidential information is exposed. Currently, we are working on APIs and gateways to allow different data systems to communicate. Once this integration happens, we’ll move towards utilising AI more fully.
Meanwhile, we are training our human resources in AI. We’ve opened an AI incubation cell, and our Deputy Chief recently signed an agreement with BEL (Bharat Electronics Limited) to work on this together. We believe that within three to four years, we’ll be able to combine data and AI more effectively. For now, we have some initial successes, like chatbots for veterans, which are early forms of AI. The real challenge remains in plugging security gaps, and while we are working on that, I can admit we are not fully prepared yet.
You also mentioned grey zone warfare. Given that modern conflicts increasingly involve non-military means, how is India poised for this? We’ve seen instances like Israel’s infiltration of Hezbollah’s network, and our own leaders, such as General Bipin Rawat, have spoken about India’s two-and-a-half-front war. Are we making progress in preparing for these conflicts?
The army has always been preparing, much like a surgeon who practices on mannequins for years before operating on a real patient. We all understand that wars will come when they come, but the time in between – in the grey zone – requires preparation.
Take examples like the Doklam standoff, Kargil, or Galwan. Do we call them full-fledged wars? No, but they are part of the grey zone. We need to be ready for that space. Tactical missteps can lead to strategic ramifications, involving the whole nation.
To deal with this, we need common thinking at all levels, from commanding officers to the Chief of Army Staff. Grey zone warfare involves cyber, electronic warfare and the cognitive domain, especially the battle of narratives. This isn’t just about dealing with adversaries but also about protecting our own population, including the defence community of 1.3 million people.
We must manage the degree of delegation needed for effective action in the grey zone, and we are developing measures to address this at various levels.
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