Assam is no stranger to floods, political blame games during floods, or the flood-fuelled corruption that rages like a fearsome river in spate.

On Monday, Leader of Opposition and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi visited Assam, meeting with people affected by the floods and tweeting about it. He highlighted the number of deaths and displacements caused by the floods, stating, “These numbers reflect the gross and grave mismanagement by BJP’s double-engine government, which came to power with the promise of a ‘flood-free Assam’. Assam needs a comprehensive and compassionate vision – proper relief, rehabilitation, and compensation in the short term, and a pan-Northeast water management authority to do everything necessary to control floods in the long term.” Indeed, there is no doubt about that.

Why Rahul Gandhi needs to look back

Rahul’s visit to Assam during such a significant natural disaster is politically wise and timely, likely earning him some goodwill. However, there is another aspect of the data he should consider.

According to the Assam water resources department, about 10.2 per cent of India’s total area is flood-prone, whereas in Assam, 39.58 per cent of the state is vulnerable to floods. This means that Assam’s flood-prone area is nearly four times the national average.

Since Independence, Assam has experienced major floods in the years 1954, 1962, 1972, 1977, 1984, 1988, 1998, 2002, 2004 and 2012. Almost every year, three to four waves of floods ravage the flood-prone areas of the state. The average annual loss due to floods in Assam amounts to approximately Rs 200 crore. Notably, in 1998, the loss was around Rs 500 crore, and in 2004, it escalated to about Rs 771 crore.

According to data available on the Open Government Data (OGD) Platform India, the year 2002 was particularly devastating, with over 7.5 million people affected and total damages amounting to Rs 753.03 crore, largely driven by extensive crop and house damage. In 2004, the impact on houses was notable, with over 663,000 houses damaged. The year 2012 stands out with a staggering Rs 3,200.31 crore in damages, primarily due to substantial losses in public utilities.

The fact remains that in all instances of major floods prior to 2016, the Congress was in power in Assam. This raises the question: did the Congress recognise the need for a long-term solution to Assam’s floods only after losing power in the state? During their tenure, embankments and dykes were repeatedly swept away, corruption was rampant and a comprehensive long-term strategy was conspicuously absent, just as it is today.

After India gained independence in 1947, the Congress party dominated Assam’s political landscape for several decades. The party led various state governments and played a key role in the state’s development and integration of diverse ethnic groups.

During the 1950s to the 1970s, the Congress party was the primary political force in Assam with leaders like Bimala Prasad Chaliha serving as chief minister. The 1980s were marked by the Assam Movement (1979-1985), a significant protest against illegal immigrants. This movement culminated in the signing of the Assam Accord in 1985. During this period, the political fortunes of the Congress fluctuated with the emergence of the Asom Gana Parishad as a strong regional party challenging Congress’s dominance. In the 1990s, the Congress regained power under the leadership of Hiteswar Saikia and later Tarun Gogoi. This period saw the party reestablishing its influence and addressing various socio-political challenges in the state. From 2001 to 2016, Tarun Gogoi served as the chief minister for three consecutive terms.

BJP also has its share of blame

The OGD data reveals that similarly, in the year 2017 saw a sharp rise in damages, reaching Rs 4,164.81 crore influenced by severe crop damage and extensive house damage affecting over 1,11,000 houses and leading to significant public utility losses. The data also reveal recurring issues, such as cattle loss and human lives lost, with notable spikes in years like 2019 and 2020, where combined damages exceeded Rs 3,000 crore each year. These years highlight the persistent vulnerability of the region to natural disasters, emphasising the need for improved disaster management and mitigation strategies. Between 2000 and 2020, natural disasters had a significant impact on various aspects of life, including agricultural areas, population, infrastructure and livestock in Assam.

As on 7 July 2024, out of 36 districts, 28 of them — Kamrup, Nagaon, Cachar, Dhubri, Goalpara, Morigaon, Hailakandi, Bongaigaon, South Salmara, Dibrugarh, Karimganj, Lakhimpur, Hojai, Nalbari, Charaideo, Biswanath, Golaghat, Jorhat, Dhemaji, Barpeta, Sonitpur, Kokrajhar, Majuli, Kamrup (M), Darrang, Sivasagar, Chirang and Tinsukia — were reeling under floods in the state.

The loss of life and property has been tremendous this time as floods have affected both urban and rural areas. Just like the previous Congress governments, the BJP has made lofty promises to resolve the flood issues, but unfortunately, these promises fade away as soon as the waters recede. Walking through flood-affected areas in gum boots, surveying from a helicopter and visiting people in relief camps are mere optics until a practical and scientific solution is implemented. Walking through flood-affected areas in gum boots, aerial surveys and relief camp visits must translate into actionable and sustainable flood management policies. Otherwise, these actions become mere fodder for social media, eagerly consumed by an ever-hungry online audience.

River bank erosion crisis

According to the state water, resource department, Assam is grappling with a significant issue: river bank erosion caused by the Brahmaputra, Barak and their tributaries. This phenomenon leads to damages amounting to several hundred crores annually. Over the past decades, more than 4.27 lakh hectares of land have been lost to erosion by the Brahmaputra and its tributaries, accounting for 7.40 per cent of the state’s total area. On average, approximately 8,000 hectares of land are eroded each year. In some areas, the Brahmaputra river has widened up to 15 kilometres due to this persistent erosion.

Erosion has also resulted in frequent breaches of embankments, affecting new regions annually. The state’s fertile agricultural lands, crucial for the rural economy, are steadily diminishing, exacerbating economic hardships for many communities. The scale and impact of river bank erosion in Assam are both severe and distressing.

A flood-hit economy

Floods have a significant negative impact on Assam’s economy as it loses an estimated Rs 200 crore every year due to it.

Beyond political optics, there is a pressing need for a holistic approach to flood management. The historical data points to a pattern of recurring floods and escalating economic losses indicating systemic failures in disaster preparedness and management across different political regimes.

Both the Congress and BJP have made lofty promises, but the implementation has often fallen short. Effective flood mitigation requires comprehensive planning, robust infrastructure and stringent implementation of flood control measures. A scientific approach, incorporating modern technology for flood prediction, real-time monitoring and community-based disaster preparedness programmes, is crucial. Moreover, addressing the corruption and bureaucratic inefficiencies that hinder flood management projects is imperative. Only through a concerted and sincere effort can Assam hope to mitigate the devastating impact of floods and safeguard its economic and social well-being. Or else, it is hollow politics without concrete policies.

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Assam floods: Why Rahul Gandhi blaming BJP’s ‘grave mismanagement’ is a bit rich