Maharashtra is heading to the polls on November 20, with 9.7 crore voters set to cast their ballots for 288 assembly seats. Political parties are going all out to win over key demographics, including women, farmers and young people with a promise of freebies.
The election has taken an interesting turn with multiple parties claiming to be the authentic representatives of their ideologies. Among the six main parties in the race, four — Shiv Sena, Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray, Nationalist Congress Party, and Nationalist Congress Party Sharadchandra Pawar — claim to be the original factions. While Shiv Sena and NCP have allied with the BJP, Shiv Sena UBT and NCPSP have teamed up with Congress.
Freebies and promises
After the Lok Sabha elections, the Mahayuti government realised that inflation was a major concern and introduced a scheme to provide women earning ?2.5 lakh or less per year and those between 21-65 years old, with ?1,500 per month.
The BJP has now pledged to increase this amount to ?2,100 per month, while Congress has countered with a promise of ?3,000 per month, sparking a “freebie war” between the two parties. Both parties are also targeting farmers with loan waivers, a key issue in Indian states where farm distress is a major concern.
Youth and employment: The BJP has promised ?10,000 per month for 10 lakh students, along with 25 lakh job opportunities. Congress has gone one step further, pledging ?4,000 per month for unemployed youth.
Women’s empowerment: The BJP has committed to a significant boost in financial assistance under its ‘Ladki Bahin’ initiative, raising the monetary aid from Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,100, while also planning to recruit 25,000 women in the police force. While, the MVA’s Mahalaxmi Scheme offers ?3,000 per month for women and free bus rides.
Farmers and senior citizens: The BJP has promised a 30% cut in power bills, increased old-age pensions, and a hike in the Kisan Samman Yojana’s annual payout. The MVA’s farm debt waiver of up to ?3 lakh could appeal strongly to Maharashtra’s farmer communities.
Caste, religion, reservation
The Maharashtra Assembly elections are expected to be highly competitive with caste dynamics, reservation issues and religion playing decisive roles. The ongoing Maratha reservation agitation and OBC counter-movement will likely impact the election outcome. In the past, the Maratha quota issue has influenced election results, particularly in the Marathwada region, where Marathas comprise approximately 28% of the state’s population and hold considerable sway.
The BJP-led alliance is working to consolidate its base among non-dominant castes, especially OBCs, by fielding legacy Maratha candidates and promoting OBC leaders. Meanwhile, the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) relies on the traditional Maratha-Muslim-Mahar combination, a historically strong voting bloc.
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has also launched a campaign, ‘Sajag Raho’ to unite Hindu voters.
On the cast front, Eknath Shinde has built a strong support base among Kunbis and Other Backward Classes (OBCs), while Devendra Fadnavis holds sway over the upper castes. On the other hand, Uddhav Thackeray’s support comes primarily from Muslims, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Buddhists.
When combining the support for Shinde and Fadnavis, the Mahayuti alliance appears to have an edge among Marathas, Kunbis, upper castes, and OBCs. Conversely, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) leadership, led by Thackeray, performs significantly better among Muslims, Scheduled Tribes, and Buddhists.
Infrastructure boom, allegations loom
The development agenda has been a cornerstone of the Narendra Modi administration and will remain a key focus for the ruling government in the upcoming elections. Major infrastructure projects, such as the Atal Setu, Samruddhi Mahamarg, Navi Mumbai Airport, the Mumbai Metropolitan region’s Metro network, Wadhavan port, and the Dharavi Redevelopment project, are central to this vision.
However, the Opposition has already raised allegations of irregularities and favouritism in the allocation of costly land in Mumbai to contractors and industrialists.
Opinion poll
An opinion poll conducted by survey agency Matrize between October 10 and November 9, has predicted that the ruling Mahayuti in Maharashtra will return to power in the state’s Assembly elections, scheduled for November 20.
As per the survey projections, the Mahayuti may secure between 145-165 seats in Maharashtra’s 288-member Assembly while the Maha Vikas Aghadi of the Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress and NCP is predicted to win around 106-126 seats.
A victory in the Haryana elections, however, appeared to have turned the tide in favour of the BJP-led Mahayuti, reenergising its cadre and allowing the party to recalibrate its strategy for the Assembly polls.
The MVA, on the other hand, was seen struggling on the issue of seat-sharing and the chief ministerial face. However, the coalition has exuded confidence about winning the elections and forming a government in the state.
The elections are a make or break for either side of the alliance with the last five years witnessing significant political realignments in the state with both regional behemoths – the Shiv Sena and the NCP – seeing a split.
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A freebie race in Maharashtra election as Mahayuti and MVA rival for power
