With the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam having boomeranged in setting a favourable narrative, Pakistan has gone back to its old playbook: escalate tensions along the Line of Control (LoC) to distract attention and keep Indian forces tied to the temporary separation line.For four consecutive nights following the massacre of 28 innocent people, the Pakistan Army expanded and intensified ceasefire violations opposite the Kupwara and Poonch sectors in Jammu and Kashmir. The Indian Army has responded effectively to each act of unprovoked aggression.STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADCalculated reasons behind Pakistan’s ceasefire violationsThe surge in ceasefire violations is not random. It stems from a calculated mix of strategic signalling, internal instability and Pakistan’s perennial obsession with Kashmir. After the Pahalgam terror attack, India undertook several strong retaliatory measures: suspending the Indus Waters Treaty discussions, expelling Pakistani diplomats and showcasing its naval missile capabilities. These moves clearly unsettled Pakistan’s leadership.More from India
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Pahalgam: Rajnath Singh meets PM Modi amid rising India-Pakistan tension over terror attackBy escalating firing along the LoC, Pakistan seeks to achieve multiple objectives. First, it aims to signal “resistance” to India’s tough posture. Second, it hopes to keep the LoC hot to prevent or delay any larger Indian military or diplomatic response. There is also a psychological warfare element at play: videos circulated by Pakistani social media accounts purportedly show military assets being moved towards the Indian border, though the authenticity of such footage remains highly questionable.Pakistan’s display of military assets — many sourced from China and Turkey — through both official and unofficial channels is part of a broader psychological warfare campaign. The objective is clear: intimidate India, dissuade any possible countermeasures and showcase an exaggerated image of military readiness. This seems to be a nervous action by Pakistan against the backdrop of recent history of India striking back with military action in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and deep into Pakistan’s territories in 2016 and 2019 after Uri and Pulwama terror attacks respectively.India’s military, political and diplomatic apparatus have matured significantly. New Delhi understands that Pakistan’s sabre-rattling stems from weakness, not strength. Nevertheless, India cannot afford complacency. While Pakistan’s ceasefire violations have so far been limited to small arms fire, escalation to mortar or artillery shelling remains a real possibility.In addition, India’s patience is not infinite. Innocent lives lost to Pakistan-backed terrorism demand accountability, not endless wait-and-watch games. India’s calibrated, firm, yet restrained responses show a strategic maturity — but they also reflect a quiet readiness to act decisively.STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADHistorically, Pakistan has used ceasefire violations as cover to infiltrate terrorists into Jammu and Kashmir. Given the timing, it is highly plausible that the recent uptick in firing is designed to facilitate renewed terrorist infiltration, emboldened by the massacre in Pahalgam. India’s security forces are aware of this tactic and remain vigilant.A domestic diversion amid internal crisisBeyond its strategic objectives, Pakistan’s escalation is also driven by internal compulsions. The country is reeling under severe economic distress, rampant inflation, political instability and a growing chasm between its military establishment and civilian population. In times of domestic turmoil, successive Pakistani governments — often in cahoots with the army — have historically ratcheted up tensions with India to unify their populace under the garb of nationalism.The recent shift towards a more hardline military leadership, coupled with increased dependency on Chinese, Turkish and even remnant US military hardware, has further emboldened Islamabad to adopt a belligerent posture. Ceasefire violations allow Pakistan’s leadership to play to the gallery by projecting strength even as the country crumbles internally.STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADInternational isolation and strategic signallingThe international community’s reaction to the Pahalgam massacre — especially the strong condemnation from US and other global powers — has left Pakistan diplomatically almost isolated. Islamabad’s frustration is palpable. Resorting to aggression along the LoC is a desperate attempt to internationalise the Kashmir issue yet again, hoping to draw global attention back to the region on Pakistan’s terms.However, the world today is not so easily misled. Pakistan’s long-standing patronage of terror groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), now operating under proxies like The Resistance Front (TRF) and People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF), is well-documented. The Pahalgam massacre is the latest grim reminder of the consequences of Pakistan’s unholy mentorship of terrorism.Ceasefire agreements: On paper vs ground realityTo understand the gravity of Pakistan’s latest escalation, a look at the trend over recent years is instructive. The February 25, 2021 reaffirmation of the ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan initially led to a significant reduction in violations. The year 2021 witnessed relatively few incidents after the pact and the trend continued into 2022 and early 2023 with sporadic breaches. However, 2025 has seen a dangerous return to the old ways.STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADEarlier this year, Pakistan’s unprovoked firing in Poonch and Rajouri injured two Indian soldiers, prompting a flag meeting between the two armies. Yet, no amount of diplomatic reaffirmations can cover up Pakistan’s fundamental duplicity: while signing agreements with one hand, it supports and facilitates terrorism with the other.These latest ceasefire violations are not the actions of rogue soldiers acting independently. They are systematic, deliberate provocations sanctioned at the highest levels of Pakistan’s military and political establishment.Ceasefire agreementIn November 2003, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire along the LoC marking a significant step towards reducing hostilities between the two countries.However, the situation began to deteriorate post-2016, with a significant escalation in ceasefire violations. The number of incidents rose sharply year after year, culminating in a peak in 2020. This period was marked by frequent exchanges of fire, resulting in casualties among civilians and security forces on both sides.According to a Ministry of Home Affairs report, between 2018 and 2020, ceasefire violations along the India-Pakistan border witnessed a significant and worrying upward trend. In 2018, there were a total of 2,140 incidents.STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADMonthly figures that year showed a sharp spike in January with 408 violations, but as the months progressed, numbers generally decreased, reaching as low as 13 incidents in July before slightly rising again toward the year’s end.In 2019, CFVs surged to 3,479 incidents, marking a notable escalation. While January 2019 saw 216 violations — fewer than January 2018 — the violations intensified mid-year, peaking in October at 398 incidents.The trend continued aggressively into 2020, which recorded a staggering 5,133 ceasefire violations, the highest in the three-year span. Each month of 2020 consistently recorded high figures, with July witnessing the peak at 482 violations.Overall, the data highlights a consistent pattern of increasing hostilities year-on-year, culminating in 2020 with nearly two and a half times the incidents recorded in 2018.Recognising the urgent need to restore calm, India and Pakistan reaffirmed their commitment to the 2003 ceasefire agreement in February 2021. This renewed understanding led to a substantial reduction in ceasefire violations, offering a much-needed respite to the residents living along the sensitive border areas and creating cautious optimism for longer-term peace.STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADPakistan continues its vile gamePakistan’s escalation of ceasefire violations after the Pahalgam terror attack is a cynical, calculated move aimed at distracting attention, aiding terrorist infiltration, rallying domestic audiences and sending signals internationally. But the world is no longer oblivious to Pakistan’s duplicitous role as both arsonist and firefighter in South Asia.India has vowed to continue defending its borders robustly, holding Pakistan accountable for its sponsorship of terrorism and pursue justice for the victims of the Pahalgam massacre. The LoC firings don’t seem to be anything but Pakistani provocations to divert India’s attention and shield terrorists Islamabad backs at a time when India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to “identify, track and punish” all those responsible for the Pahalgam terror attack.TagsIndian ArmyJammu and KashmirKashmirPakistanEnd of Article
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