Narendra Modi on Friday became the first Indian prime minister to visit Ukraine since the two countries established diplomatic ties in 1993. Modi arrived in Kyiv from Poland by train. His Ukraine visit, coming close to his two-day Russia tour, is being viewed as a balancing act by the Indian government.
India has maintained that its relations with both Russia and Ukraine are not tagged with the bilateral relationship of the two former Soviet constituents. India has “substantive and independent” relations with Russia and Ukraine that “stand on their own”, Secretary West in the Ministry of External Affairs, Tanmaya Lal, said earlier this week while announcing Modi’s “landmark” visit to Poland and Ukraine.
“This is not a zero-sum game. The PM had also travelled to Russia. Many ideas were discussed. The PM has also met President Zelenskyy on a couple of occasions in the last one year or so, and they will now be meeting again in Ukraine… The ongoing conflict will form part of the discussions,” Lal told reporters.
Modi himself and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar have maintained since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war that India would not look it from the prism of Nato-backed West or from the expansionist point view of Russia that gets support from China, which is facing international criticism for its territorial expansionist policies in the South China Sea and the Himalayas.
There are seven specific attributes that define India’s balancing, not neutral as the New Delhi emphasises, act while dealing with the two warring nations, Russia and Ukraine.
India denounces war but does not condemn Russia for invasion
From the beginning of the war that began with Russian troops invading Ukraine in February 2022, India has called for settling the issues through dialogue, with Modi saying that while war is not a solution the “legitimate concerns” of Russia’s about the security situation in its neighbourhood should be addressed.
In September 2022, at the Shanghai Cooperation Summit in Uzbekistan, Modi directly rebuffed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, telling President Vladimir Putin that it was not the era of war.
“I know that today’s era is not of war and we have talked to you many times over the phone on the subject that democracy and diplomacy and dialogue are all these things that touch the world,” Modi told Putin during the SCO event in Samarkand.
“We will definitely get a chance to discuss how we can move onto the path of peace in the coming days, I will also get an opportunity to understand your point of view,” Modi said.
The next year, in June 2023, Modi dismissed the charge that India is neutral in the ongoing war in an interview with Wall Street Journal. Modi told WSJ that India stood on the side of peace in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the country is not neutral.
“Some people say that we are neutral. But we are not neutral. We are on the side of peace,” he said.
He also dismissed criticism of India in the US for not taking a more forceful stance against Russia over its Ukraine invasion. Modi said, “I don’t think this type of perception is widespread in the US.”
In July this year, when Modi visited Russia, he told Putin that peace is “of utmost importance” and the solution to the war in Ukraine “cannot be found on the battlefield”.
However, during the period of war, India has not condemned Russia for invading Ukraine in 2022 — which came eight years after it annexed Crimea, a peninsula of Ukraine. Some of the Western countries have criticised India for not expressly condemning Russia’s aggression against their ally Ukraine.
But India has maintained that the issue can be resolved only through dialogue between the two warring countries. On his Moscow visit, Modi emphasised the significance of peace, saying, “As a friend, I have also said for the brighter future of our next generation, peace is of utmost importance…When innocent children are murdered, one sees them die, the heart pains and that pain is unbearable.”
India has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine
India has sent several consignments of humanitarian aid to war-torn Ukraine, following engagements of the two governments to process this through diplomatic channels. In February this year, the external affairs ministry told Parliament, “Since March 2022, Government of India (GoI) has sent 15 consignments of humanitarian assistance weighing about 117 metric tons…”
The things that India has sent to Ukraine include medicines, medical equipment, blankets, tents, tarpaulin, solar lamps, dignity kits, sleeping mats, and diesel generator sets.
The ministry also told Parliament that India provided financial assistance for reconstruction, remodelling and refurbishment of a school in Kyiv, besides extended “financial assistance for training of teachers from three schools in Kyiv aimed at restoring and supporting the psychological health of Ukrainian children and youth”.
Just ahead of Modi’s visit, Lal told the media that at least 16 consignments of humanitarian assistance have been delivered to Ukraine so far, ranging from medicines to power generators and medical equipment. He said, “I think 135 tonnes of material has been supplied so far and further initiatives are being explored.”
Modi’s telecons and offer to mediate
While the focus has been on Modi’s meetings — in-person and virtual — with Putin, the Indian prime minister has also met Zelenskyy twice and spoken to him on phone at least five times since the war broke out two and a half years ago. In all these conversions with both Putin and Zelenskyy, Modi’s emphasis has been on dialogue and diplomacy.
Also, India has not responded to Ukraine’s angry outbursts at New Delhi’s continued engagement with Moscow in the same tone and tenure in public.
For example, the day Modi met Putin at the Kremlin, Zelenskyy wrote on X, “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.”
India did summon the Ukrainian envoy to express its displeasure, but it didn’t make it an issue to affect Modi’s visit to Ukraine, which was still in the planning stage.
It should also be noted that since the war broke out, India did not commit to the annual summit for three that takes place between New Delhi and Moscow. Modi attended the 22nd annual summit after a gap of three years in July. The last summit happened in December 2021, when Putin visited Delhi.
The parity in India’s relations with the two countries has tilted towards Ukraine in the aftermath of the war. In the pre-February 2022 world, India’s ties with Ukraine were lukewarm over Kyiv’s strong military ties with Pakistan and its stand against New Delhi on the issue of Kashmir in the United Nations.
Moreover, Modi in a telephonic conversation with Zelenskyy in October 2022 hinted at India’s readiness to mediate between Russia and Ukraine to end the war. Modi reportedly told Zelenskyy that there can be no military solution to the conflict and reiterated his call for early cessation of hostilities and the need to pursue the path of dialogue and diplomacy.
This was the stance that Modi had taken a month earlier at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit, when he told Putin that this was not a time for war as there was a global food shortage among other concerns
Manages to keep Putin virtual for key summits India hosted in 2023
Two big events happened in 2023 that India chaired — the SCO summit in July and the G-20 summit in September. There was intense speculation about Putin meeting Modi. However, India opted for hosting the SCO summit — a first for New Delhi — in virtual mode, cancelling the physical meeting of the group.
Two months later, G20 leaders including US President Joe Biden were to visit India for the summit.
Against this backdrop, there was speculation about Putin being in the same event as those staunchly opposing him over the Ukraine war. But days before the summit was to begin, Russia announced that Putin would not be visiting India.
Becomes top buyer of cheaper Russian oil
While sanctions came on Russia thick and fast from the West after Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, it faced an acute cash crunch. Russia resorted to selling oil at a cheaper rate than the other traditional oil exporters.
India imports most of its oil requirements. For a country growing fastest among major economies, India needs to secure its energy requirements. The oil prices have largely been linked to the security situation in West Asia. Any flare up in the region can push oil prices and impact India’s fiscal management adversely. For India, Russia’s oil offer came as a much-needed relief and an opportunity to do business. India has been among the top buyers of Russian oil. Records for the last month show that India surpassed China to become the top buyer of Russian oil.
India’s strategic interests are intricately linked with Russia, which is its main defence supplier. The two countries have a long-standing strategic partnership. India hugely depends for the maintenance of its defence equipment on Russian services. Cheaper oil just oiled their bilateral relation for a smoother functioning — possibly in the post-Ukraine war world.
With this in the background, Modi paid a visit to Moscow in July but quickly followed it up with a visit to Ukraine, where not too many “non-ally” leaders have gone with missiles flying in its skies.
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Moscow in July, Kyiv in August: How Modi has balanced Putin-Zelenskyy fight
