The exit polls have been proven off the mark by some distance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The voters’ verdict was announced by the Election Commission on Tuesday, showing that the electorate decided to please all major stakeholders across states, unlike the pollsters’ assessment that the ruling BJP-led alliance would get a bigger mandate than it got in 2019.
The electoral outcome has given every party something to be happy about. This is why while the BJP leaders expressed satisfaction at the election results describing it as “people’s mandate for PM Modi’s third consecutive term”.
On the other hand, the Congress and its allies also looked jubilant in the evening of the election results. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said, “This is the victory of the public. This is the victory of democracy.”
What’s in for the BJP?
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has won a majority with about 295 MPs in the 543-member House. The BJP fell short of the majority mark of its own — unlike its performances in 2014 and 2019 — but it emerged as the single-largest party with over 240 Lok Sabha members. The next best performer in the Lok Sabha election was the Congress but the BJP still got a lead of over 140 seats.
This mandate, given the pre-poll arrangement, makes PM Modi only the second person eligible for the third consecutive oath as the prime minister, after Jawaharlal Nehru who achieved this feat 62 years ago.
The BJP also won the state elections in Odisha and Arunachal Pradesh — two of the four assemblies that went to the polls along with the Lok Sabha election. The BJP also opened its account in Kerala, where Suresh Gopi won the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat as the party polled about 17% votes in the state.
In Tamil Nadu, the BJP didn’t win a seat but it polled about 11% votes. The BJP had set a target of winning a double-digit vote share in Tamil Nadu, and it made it possible.
In Telangana, the BJP emerged as the largest party in the Lok Sabha election — barely months after the Congress secured an emphatic victory in the Assembly polls.
What did the Congress gain?
The biggest gain for the Congress is that it got the eligibility to have a Leader of Opposition (LoP) in the Lok Sabha — a status it had failed to earn in the previous two parliamentary polls. The Congress has fallen just short of the three-digit mark. But at 98, the Congress is more than double the number it got in 2014 and substantially higher compared to 2019.
This explains why the party leader took charge in lashing out at the BJP and PM Modi in the official press conference. Kharge said, “We were saying from the beginning that our fight was the Modi versus public contest. We accept the verdict of the public. This is a mandate that is against Mr Modi. It is his political and moral defeat.”
His party colleague Rahul Gandhi said, “Our fight was to save democracy…The country has unanimously stated that we don’t want Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to run this country.”
The Congress-led INDIA bloc has won about 230 seats, making it interested in the formation of the next government should their managers get to sway the BJP’s allies, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Janata Dal-United (JDU) to their camp. Both the TDP of N Chandrababu Naidu and the JDU of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar contested the polls in alliance with the BJP based on pre-poll arrangements. Some Congress leaders have hinted at reaching out to Naidu and Kumar.
The Congress also won back both Gandhi family bastions in Uttar Pradesh — Amethi and Raebareli. Rahul Gandhi won from both the seats — Wayanad in Kerala and Raebareli.
Samajwadi Party
The Samajwadi Party emerged as the story of the election from the Opposition camp. It stopped the BJP from emerging as the single-largest party from the state. The Samajwadi Party got 37 seats (till the last report came in) compared to 33 of the BJP.
Significantly, the Samajwadi Party candidate won from Faizabad in Ayodhya, where a Ram Mandir was inaugurated in January this year. The BJP was upbeat about the construction of the temple in Ayodhya, which was one of its core political agenda for decades.
The Samajwadi Party also helped the Congress regain some lost political grounds in Uttar Pradesh as the party won six Lok Sabha seats there. It should also be noted that Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav was much in demand for holding rallies in constituencies from where Congress nominees were contesting.
Janata Dal-United
The JDU, which was being written just before the Lok Sabha election, has returned with a good strike rate. It got 12 of the 16 constituencies it contested in Bihar, which sends 40 members to the Lok Sabha.
This makes the JDU an important pillar in the NDA for propping up the third Modi government at the Centre. This comes at the back of a poor showing by Nitish Kumar’s party in the Bihar Assembly polls in 2020, when the JDU finished third behind the RJD and the BJP. It became a junior partner of the BJP after several election cycles.
The current performance of the JDU has the potential to give Nitish Kumar a thicker cushion in Bihar against pricking BJP leaders, some of whom want to see him replaced by a saffron party member. This also makes it possible for Nitish Kumar to stay the CM face of the NDA in Bihar next year when the state goes to the polls.
Telugu Desam Party
The TDP has returned to power in Andhra Pradesh, defeating the YSR Congress Party of the outgoing CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, in the state polls that were held along with the Lok Sabha election. It is leading the NDA in Andhra Pradesh with a combined tally of 165, as per the latest Election Commission figures. The YSRCP was ahead at only 10 seats.
The TDP has won 136 Assembly seats, followed by the Janasena Party of Pawan Kalyan. The BJP has won eight seats in Andhra Pradesh.
In the Lok Sabha election, the TDP is on course to win 16 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats. Its allies — the BJP and JSP — got the five other seats. This makes Naidu a key cog in the NDA wheel at the Centre.
Trinamool Congress
West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s TMC has pushed the BJP back in a state that her rival party has been eyeing for several years. The BJP had won 18 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, threatening the TMC, which had won 22 in Bengal, which sends 42 members to the Lok Sabha.
This time around, the TMC has stopped the BJP to 12 seats as it improved its tally to 29. The Congress, its rival in Bengal and partner in Delhi, won the other seat. This makes the TMC the third-biggest party in the Opposition INDIA bloc after the Congress and the SP.
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
With the AIADMK having weakened following the death of former Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa, the DMK led by incumbent CM MK Stalin is set to win 22 seats in the state that has 39 Lok Sabha seats. The DMK won 24 Lok Sabha seats in 2019.
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Lok Sabha election 2024 gave all parties something to be happy about
